Now that the critics awards are rolling in, the odds have changed, though we still have no clear frontrunners yet in certain races.
Best Picture: The Scocial Network really has been sweeping these awards, and it will no doubt be a top contender. I haven't seen The King's Speech yet, but I doubt it will win, unless it's AMAZING. Usually, period pieces don't win, unless they're on the level of The English Patient, and this movie doesn't look like it is. But I'll decide when I see it. The Fighter is looking more and more to me like a strong possibility as an upset, but we'll have to wait till the Globes plus the B.F.CA to see.
Best Director: David Fincher , along with The Social Network, have been taking home all the awards, and I have a feeling that he could win, but his film does not get Best Picture. But it's still to early to say.
Best Actor: I just checked a precursor chart from an Oscar site that I follow and Collin Firth is in the lead, though James Franco is close behind, and Jesse Einberg in The Social Network as well. I still think Collin will win, but Franco is a serious threat. His performance got great word of mouth, plus he's an actor who's been very active these past couple years. Einberg is probably too young, though I still haven't seen the movie.
Best Actress: Natalie Portman's chances are increasing, but I'm afraid that Benning is still a threat, given her overdue status, and also if Sandra Bullock could build momentum out of nowwhere last year, anyone could. Lawrence will be nominated, probably, but I doubt she can win, though I still haven't seen her, UGH! I have it in my living room, but still haven't watched it. Nicole Kidman is a solid bet, but her chances of winning are very slim, though the role is quite interesting. I just read the play last week, and it was really good, though a bit bare. I wonder how they'll adapt to film. As for the last slot, I'm still unsure about. Neither Swank or Berry are going to make it, I think they're SAG/GLOBE nominations were just star-power. I'm going to say MIchelle Williams will get it for Blue Valentine . She's a hardworking actress, and the film looks wonderful.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale will get nominated for The Fighter and he'll probably win too. Geoffrey Rush (The KIng's Speech) and Andrew Garfiel (The Social Network) will also get nominated, I think.
Best Supporting Actress: HBC, and the two Fighter ladies are in, but the other two slots are mysteries. I'll say Mila Kunis, (Black Swan) and Hailee Steinfelt will get in.
What are your thoughts? Have you seen any Oscar movies lately?