Sunday, February 27, 2011

Oscar Predictions

So, it's the final day! Oscar season is nearly over.n I have to say I think 2010 was a good year. Much better then last year. I'm reallly sorry I've been sooooooooo slowwwwwwww this year, on my B.A profiles and on regular posts. I've just been loaded with a ton of stuff since September. Anyway, I'm planning to try harder! Here's my predictions:

Best Picture: The King's Speech is on a roll and i feel it'll win. I personally really liked it, but I need to rewatch the film soon, more for Firth's performance then anything else. The Social network stil has a chance, but I somehow don't see it. I personally would hate to see it win. I understand why The king's Speech's frontrunenr status angers a lot of people, but I think it's a worthy film. So, Will Win: TKS Should Win: TKS (Though I haven't seen Inception, or 127 Hours yet)

Best Director: This is harder to call then BP. Tom Hooper won the DGA, which makes him a very, very possible winner. David Fincher though will probably win, because he won the BAFTA, which is huge, since The King's Speech is a british film, that swept several other awards, but couldn't win Director. plus, the academy will want to honor The Social Network, besides Screenplay, and Fincher is much more overdue then Fincher. Will Win: Fincher Should Win: Darren Arfonsky, his direction was fantastic, despite the over the top special effects at the end!

Best Actor: Colin Firth is the biggest lock here, because he's overdue, lost last year, and has swept all the precursors. Early, early, on, James Franco was the runnerup, but Firth is now a total lock. Will Win: Firth. Should win: As I've said, I need to see Firth again. I found Jesse Eisenberg pretty good in retrospect, but i haven't seen the others, so I really am undecided here.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman is still the hot favorite, and the only thing really going against her is that Black Swan didn't do as well on the nomination tally as most thought, which could help Benning, who is overdue, but I think that that wasn't played up as well as it could have been this season and Bening just lost too much of her momentum to Natalie. I guess if they split, Lawrence could pull an Adrien Brody, but it's unlikely, and Williams and Kidman don't have much of a chance here. Will Win: Portman. Should win: I'm in the process of deciding that! Expect Kidman's profile by today!

Best Supporting Actor: Thoug Rush did win the BAFTA, I don't think he'll win the oscar. Bale is too big of a favorite to lose. i'll be happy to see him win. Will Win: Bale. Should win: I wouldn't mind if Bale, Hawkes, or Rush won, they were all fantastic. But in the end, it's Rush who I'd pick, though he's really a lead in my opinion.

Best Supporting Actress: Leo was the clear favorite for much of this race, but it was always somewhat open, and now that she put that add up, it is unpredictable. Steinfeld has been gaining speed, but hopefully she won't win, although it would be cool,I guess, since she's so young, But I don't think it will be her. HBC has been getting a lot of bets as well, and although she has a chance, I feel that she won't win either. Her performance isn't very Oscar-worthy, and The King's Speech will no doubt be honored in other places. I know this might sound stupid, but I really have a gut-feeling it'll be Jackie Weaver. Look at the facts: It seems to be a juicy role, but more importantly, it parallels the 2000 B.S.A race in not all, but some crucial ways: Hudson was the favorite, but seemed to lose speed (Leo), Dench won the SAG for a performance which wasn't considered that great (Helena), Frances McDormand split the vote with Hudson (Adams), and then Marcia wasn't considered much of a threat, but won anyway, and I just think that'll happen to Jackie Weaver. Will Win: I know it's silly, but Weaver! Should Win: Ironically, I've seen everyone but Weaver, and though I need to see Leo again, I really felt Adams gave the best job. A badly written part in some ways, but gives it the sould it needs and puts a lot of life into the movie. But my hope is that she'll get a lead role/win in the future, which may be possible, since she's supposd to play Janis Joplin!

Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech will win this one, unless Inception pulls an upset, but I think the academy will favor TKS instead. Will Win: The King's Speech Should win: The King;s Speech, though I haven't seen Inception or Another Year yet.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network is a sure thing,unless the impossible happens like last year when Up In The Air lost to Precious.If that happens, then I guess Toy Story 3 will surprise? Will Win: TSN Should Win: TSN, I didn't care for it very much, but it had a brilliant, if annoying script.

So, there it is! I know Best Supporting Actress could be wrong, but I'm confident about the rest!


Louis Morgan said...

I'll give you my predictions here:

Picture: The King's Speech- Sag, DGA, and Bafta all went for it, and are the overlapping awards so it should win here as well.

Director: It seems wrong not to give best director and picture to the same film, since it is not a common occurrence but it does happen. This is the category that could go either way, I'll go with Hooper here but Fincher seems as likely.

Actor: Firth no contest.

Actress: Portman I'll say no contest. This could easily be like last year when people thought Streep could challenge but really she did not have a chance.

Supp Actor: Bale, I doubt there will be a contest, unless they love King's Speech that much.

Supp Actress: Leo, again I could see people looking back and seeing there really was not a contest after all. I personally do not believe in the vote splinting theory, since there a many times where people have won with a challenger or challengers from the same film, when they don't win there usually is an explanation better than vote splinting actually.

Original Screenplay: The King's Speech no contest.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network no contest.

joe burns said...

I do think Leo has an excellent chance, but I guess I just don't want things to be boring,

Director is an on the line decision, but stuck with Fincher.

Natalie is indeed the favorite, but last year, I really thought Streep was close. More on that later.

Brandon said...

I know that I'm cuckoo for supporting actress but it's the only open field this year and I gotta talk about it!

I hope Leo does not win, but she still could. I just feel that this will be the return of the juvenile winner - I mean I hope so. Steinfelds chances have rapidly peaked while Leo seems hazy and her personal antics hurt her. I think Leo might win and my heart will be racing when the envelope is opened.

dtmmr said...

As much as I would kill for Nolan to win for screenplay, the fact remains the Academy has an unreasonable hard on for The King’s Speech so original screenplay will probably go to that movie rather Inception, despite it should win. Check out my list and opinions when you can!

joe burns said...

Twister: WEell she did, I should have played it safe, of course,

DTMR: I'll look again at your thoughts!